The US has been selling military equiment to Georgia for years through the FMS / FMF program just like we do for many other countries. The only exception has been the fact that Russia opened up the cyber front in this conflict and we didnt sell Georgia any Geeks . . . or common sense.
Who in their right mind would take hostile action against 2 pro-Russian provs . . . located on the Russian border and NOT expect to get spanked in return. Obviousy Georgia.
And to further prove Georgia's lack of common sense, Russia has had off and on since the early 1990s upwards to 3,000 "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Oh oh, a different point of view. Get ready for the personal attacks by the dominant paradigm.
__________________
“If it rolls, floats, flies or shoots, runs on gasoline or gunpowder, goes fast or shoots a big bullet and makes lots of noise, thus producing torque and recoil — it’s cool.” --Sterling Moss, Society of Torque and Recoil OhFour GT Drop top * Kenne Bell 9PSI I/C * Ford Racing 03 Cobra aluminum radiator * Full length welded subframe connectors * Couple of AutoMeter gauges, Grill delete kit * ZR3 Active laser countermeasures front and rear * Escort X50 blue radar detector *Clifford RSX3.5 Alarm
Notice the early and precise wording out of Washington:
"Disproprotionate response".
We didn't have any advance warning what Georgia was going to try, probably because we would have tried hard to dissuade them.
Russia went overboard, when they didn't need to, and that's where they overplayed their hand.
Georgia got eager, and it cost them. Their calculation made no sense to me, and its obvious the Russians were prepared for what they tried to do.
Justice might have been on their side, after all that is SUPPOSED to be part of their country the Russians are sitting on, but intelligence was not.
Big problems have been triggered by small packages. This one seems to have missed most of the worst case scenarios (for the rest of us - the Georgians got hammered) that might have followed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ONEZ ST
The US has been selling military equiment to Georgia for years through the FMS / FMF program just like we do for many other countries. The only exception has been the fact that Russia opened up the cyber front in this conflict and we didnt sell Georgia any Geeks . . . or common sense.
Who in their right mind would take hostile action against 2 pro-Russian provs . . . located on the Russian border and NOT expect to get spanked in return. Obviousy Georgia.
And to further prove Georgia's lack of common sense, Russia has had off and on since the early 1990s upwards to 3,000 "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
__________________
tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Notice the early and precise wording out of Washington:
"Disproprotionate response".
We didn't have any advance warning what Georgia was going to try, probably because we would have tried hard to dissuade them.
Russia went overboard, when they didn't need to, and that's where they overplayed their hand.
Georgia got eager, and it cost them. Their calculation made no sense to me, and its obvious the Russians were prepared for what they tried to do.
Justice might have been on their side, after all that is SUPPOSED to be part of their country the Russians are sitting on, but intelligence was not.
Big problems have been triggered by small packages. This one seems to have missed most of the worst case scenarios (for the rest of us - the Georgians got hammered) that might have followed.
Unless I missed something here, How do you invade yourself?? Those two provences in Georgia were theirs to begin with. Someone pointed out that it would be like Berkley California not allowing the Cal. Highway Patrol into the city of Berkley. The Russians aka. Soviets did what most empires do, they transplanted Russian nationals into those areas back in the 1950's and many who were there in later years after the fall of the Soviet Union were given Russian passports and status. Thats the oldest game in the book. Remember Germany and the Sudatenland and Czechoslovkia??
What some here is missing is the strategic importance of the pipelines going into southern Europe( notice how they were not touched), once Putin has these he has complete control over Europes fuel. That oil is transported to the port of Poti and sent by tanker across the Black Sea to Bulgaria and Romania and thru to the Med. thru the sea of Marmara. The Europeans have painted themself's into a corner with their dependence on Russian and Caucasus area oil.
__________________
06' GT Tungsten gray,seq. turn sigs. no spoiler.
XM,
An armed man is called a citizen.A disarmed man is called a subject.
Don't get me wrong - I agree with Washington, what Russia did WAS "disproportionate". Big disproportionate.
Like I said, Georgia had "Justice" on their side - which in the world of competing nation states means squat. And of course I never said Georgia invaded themselves, or Russia for that matter, or even territory Russia SHOULD have any say over.
I also said it wasn't smart, and it wasn't. Results prove that. This is (and was) one of those ugly little border mistakes that happen when Empires dissolve. Pakistan and India are 2 nuclear powers that are examples of that, standing eyeball to eyeball over Kashmir for the last 50 years because the old British Lord overseeing the breakup of the English Empire couldn't understand the different cultures involved and just drew some random lines on a map.
It was also a really stupid miscalculation by Georgia to think that the US and the rest of the West would leap to their defense after they stuck their family jewels into the bear trap. Making astronomical assumptions like that is what causes world wars - if ENOUGH people share in the delusion simultaneously.
Getting the world blown up over their mismanagement would have also been "disproportionate".
This is not a case of appeasement, but of strategic errors (again, as I pointed out earlier) propogating at a number of different levels. The darn things are multiplying like rabbits.
Getting the situation under some form of control BEFORE the Russians set us back into Cold War mode was essential. There are any number of sound strategies that can go forward from the pre-screwup status quo that block them - punish them - and even give Georgia a real chance of surviving intact (versus their near-brush with national death that their own conniving almost cost them).
I don't know about anyone else, but I'd prefer that allies CONFER with us in advance of instigating a potential World War - particularly if they seriously think we are prepared to step in and shed oceans of blood for their own local problems!
Now, if this had been a coordinated effort involving us, as allies, I'd be saying, well, that it was a dumb plan, but...
That we had to stand with our commitments, but that blowing up the place to bring 2 provinces packed with Ruskies who have probably been living there for generations under Georgian control might NOT be necessary for the key national interests of the United States.
Getting the lid back on and the two parties to their neutral corners was the smart - and in this case the right - thing to do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by napalmbomb
Unless I missed something here, How do you invade yourself?? Those two provences in Georgia were theirs to begin with. Someone pointed out that it would be like Berkley California not allowing the Cal. Highway Patrol into the city of Berkley. The Russians aka. Soviets did what most empires do, they transplanted Russian nationals into those areas back in the 1950's and many who were there in later years after the fall of the Soviet Union were given Russian passports and status. Thats the oldest game in the book. Remember Germany and the Sudatenland and Czechoslovkia??
What some here is missing is the strategic importance of the pipelines going into southern Europe( notice how they were not touched), once Putin has these he has complete control over Europes fuel. That oil is transported to the port of Poti and sent by tanker across the Black Sea to Bulgaria and Romania and thru to the Med. thru the sea of Marmara. The Europeans have painted themself's into a corner with their dependence on Russian and Caucasus area oil.
__________________
tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Glad I made you lol, but it's not the "King of change" reference, I was using it in the other context (Webster's). Still a tonge in cheek reference, however, I was called an anti-military Commie-lover for saying Georgia really did bring this on themselves, disporportinate response or not. Ruskies are just being Ruskies, Georgia was really stupid, the UN, US, and Nato are just being their usual selfs.
The Libs like to blame it on W43/Cheney, and that's the "Dominant paradigm"
--AL
__________________
“If it rolls, floats, flies or shoots, runs on gasoline or gunpowder, goes fast or shoots a big bullet and makes lots of noise, thus producing torque and recoil — it’s cool.” --Sterling Moss, Society of Torque and Recoil OhFour GT Drop top * Kenne Bell 9PSI I/C * Ford Racing 03 Cobra aluminum radiator * Full length welded subframe connectors * Couple of AutoMeter gauges, Grill delete kit * ZR3 Active laser countermeasures front and rear * Escort X50 blue radar detector *Clifford RSX3.5 Alarm
Don't get me wrong - I agree with Washington, what Russia did WAS "disproportionate". Big disproportionate.
Like I said, Georgia had "Justice" on their side - which in the world of competing nation states means squat. And of course I never said Georgia invaded themselves, or Russia for that matter, or even territory Russia SHOULD have any say over.
I also said it wasn't smart, and it wasn't. Results prove that. This is (and was) one of those ugly little border mistakes that happen when Empires dissolve. Pakistan and India are 2 nuclear powers that are examples of that, standing eyeball to eyeball over Kashmir for the last 50 years because the old British Lord overseeing the breakup of the English Empire couldn't understand the different cultures involved and just drew some random lines on a map.
It was also a really stupid miscalculation by Georgia to think that the US and the rest of the West would leap to their defense after they stuck their family jewels into the bear trap. Making astronomical assumptions like that is what causes world wars - if ENOUGH people share in the delusion simultaneously.
Getting the world blown up over their mismanagement would have also been "disproportionate".
This is not a case of appeasement, but of strategic errors (again, as I pointed out earlier) propogating at a number of different levels. The darn things are multiplying like rabbits.
Getting the situation under some form of control BEFORE the Russians set us back into Cold War mode was essential. There are any number of sound strategies that can go forward from the pre-screwup status quo that block them - punish them - and even give Georgia a real chance of surviving intact (versus their near-brush with national death that their own conniving almost cost them).
I don't know about anyone else, but I'd prefer that allies CONFER with us in advance of instigating a potential World War - particularly if they seriously think we are prepared to step in and shed oceans of blood for their own local problems!
Now, if this had been a coordinated effort involving us, as allies, I'd be saying, well, that it was a dumb plan, but...
That we had to stand with our commitments, but that blowing up the place to bring 2 provinces packed with Ruskies who have probably been living there for generations under Georgian control might NOT be necessary for the key national interests of the United States.
Getting the lid back on and the two parties to their neutral corners was the smart - and in this case the right - thing to do.
I agree with this overall, but I have to make a couple points if I may....
This was an internal Georgian matter. I would expect them to confer with us as much as we would expect to need to confer with Canada over an internal US issue. I consider Russia being there at all improper and should have been condemned and found ILLEGAL in the first place. But no one wanted to step on the toes of the now cuddly bear that is our "friend". I guess folks just didn't watch "Grizzly Man".
With this said, it sets the tone for my other opinions.
There is no true "neutral corners" for this which both reside in Georgian territory. That is the big problem. It is like someone coming into MY house and trying to stop me from doing something I have every right to do, and then someone else comes in and tries to set us both down in "neutral corners" of my living room. There are none. The other person needs to get out of my house. PERIOD.
And for me this is where the strategic blunder comes in. Georgia should have requested aid and assistance in removing the Russians from their soil. THEN deal with the issue of uprising and the potential breaking away of territories. And IMHO the only reason there WAS an issue with uprising is because they saw Papa Bear was right there to make sure they could do whatever they wanted. It is like when a little kid mouths off to an adult in front of their parent and the other adult can do little about it because the kid's parent is much bigger than they are and is encouraging the behavior.
I believe that those who live in Georgian territory but want to be Russian should MOVE TO RUSSIA. It would be like people in Maine wanting to be Canadian. Then BE Canadian, by moving there. You can't just take your State and make yourself part of Canada without the US Government having a problem with it and putting a stop to it.
So I believe the Georgians did the RIGHT thing, but in the wrong order. Evict Russian troops from your land FIRST. If Russia was truly concerned about the people in the territories they would have had UN Troops sent in as opposed to their own. The whole thing from Russia's side is a farce and true to form.
I hope other former Soviet States take close note of this. And if there is an issue for them with Russia, take the needed steps in the correct order.
__________________
- Sam
The shackles of opression and dependence are most easily slipped on with a smile and kind words of hope.
Glad I made you lol, but it's not the "King of change" reference, I was using it in the other context (Webster's). Still a tonge in cheek reference, however, I was called an anti-military Commie-lover for saying Georgia really did bring this on themselves, disporportinate response or not. Ruskies are just being Ruskies, Georgia was really stupid, the UN, US, and Nato are just being their usual selfs.
The Libs like to blame it on W43/Cheney, and that's the "Dominant paradigm"
--AL
Not poking fun at you, of course, AL. It struck my funny bone, no lie.
Sort of a double standard operating here, eh?
If Bush backs up Georgia's play and we're exchanging missiles with Russia he's a madman (and catches flak, including from me, of course, had HE been that dumb).
If bush DOESN'T back up Georgia's weak-minded gambit, and all we do is marshall half the planet fussing at Russia and getting them to retreat back to their own turf, then he's a woose.
Pretty fierce set of gotcha double standards there.
Bush, Rice, the French President, and a LOT of fellow eastern European countries reacted properly to this (I personally toss Poland in there, too).
And several major NATO members (Germany, Italy, etc) crawfished, no surprise, but no glory there, either.
But I've filed "Dominant Paradigm" away for future use. Maybe it won't be quite in line with your original application, but its cool enough to do some work.
__________________
tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Had the Russians NOT been present (and in large numbers), sure it would have been an internal Georgian affaire.
Such was NOT the case.
And when it went wrong, WHO were they expecting to back their play? Us. Not Kosher. This comprised expectations far beyond those to match the scale and scope of our relationship.
Like an arrogant second cousin you barely know who gets into trouble and calls you up and demands that you put your house up to make his property bond, its asking far too much.
Russia's presence might have been improper, but it was THERE - and as Rand always says, "A is A". Thinking the Russians would just meekly back down in the face of underwhelming Georgian power was pure fantasy.
Russia's mistake was when they went BEYOND protecting their interests (and defining those interests would have been something that Georgia stood a better chance of negotiating vs the concept that they could bulldoze the Russian Army). Russia has set back their relationships in the West about 15 years - NOT something that will serve them going forward. Issuing nuclear threats to European countries that are no longer their vassal states isn't helping their image problems much, either.
Georgia has suffered major setbacks as well, even with any sympathy they might elicit as the little guy beat up by the neighborhood bully. Their position on the list of nations striving for EU and NATO membership just got shuffled to the bottom of the deck, and their national economy just got knocked back to less than what they probably started with 20 years ago.
Russia presumably saw some advantages to what went down in Georgia, but imo they shot themselves in the foot.
On the verge of achieving economic opportunity parity with Red China, they are now back to the starting blocks.
I'm not sad about Russia's problems at all. This might just prove to be a huge favor for the rest of the world - showing the reality that underlies the carefully crafted PR.
This is information that the West needed, for many among them had, as you say, cozied up to the cute, fluffy Russian bear.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shartley
I agree with this overall, but I have to make a couple points if I may....
This was an internal Georgian matter. I would expect them to confer with us as much as we would expect to need to confer with Canada over an internal US issue. I consider Russia being there at all improper and should have been condemned and found ILLEGAL in the first place. But no one wanted to step on the toes of the now cuddly bear that is our "friend". I guess folks just didn't watch "Grizzly Man".
With this said, it sets the tone for my other opinions.
There is no true "neutral corners" for this which both reside in Georgian territory. That is the big problem. It is like someone coming into MY house and trying to stop me from doing something I have every right to do, and then someone else comes in and tries to set us both down in "neutral corners" of my living room. There are none. The other person needs to get out of my house. PERIOD.
And for me this is where the strategic blunder comes in. Georgia should have requested aid and assistance in removing the Russians from their soil. THEN deal with the issue of uprising and the potential breaking away of territories. And IMHO the only reason there WAS an issue with uprising is because they saw Papa Bear was right there to make sure they could do whatever they wanted. It is like when a little kid mouths off to an adult in front of their parent and the other adult can do little about it because the kid's parent is much bigger than they are and is encouraging the behavior.
I believe that those who live in Georgian territory but want to be Russian should MOVE TO RUSSIA. It would be like people in Maine wanting to be Canadian. Then BE Canadian, by moving there. You can't just take your State and make yourself part of Canada without the US Government having a problem with it and putting a stop to it.
So I believe the Georgians did the RIGHT thing, but in the wrong order. Evict Russian troops from your land FIRST. If Russia was truly concerned about the people in the territories they would have had UN Troops sent in as opposed to their own. The whole thing from Russia's side is a farce and true to form.
I hope other former Soviet States take close note of this. And if there is an issue for them with Russia, take the needed steps in the correct order.
__________________
tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
I believe that those who live in Georgian territory but want to be Russian should MOVE TO RUSSIA.
I believe it was Stalin that divided Ossetia and not the vote of the people. I just wanted to add that comment as background as I lead into my response to your comment above.
In the mid 1990 and in 2006 the voters in S. Ossetia held a vote for independence from Georgia. The first vote was not recognized and the second vote in 2006 had a turnout of over 90% and almost 100% of them voted for independence. That vote was overseen by international observers but it was not recognized. NATO, the UN and other international communities still recognize S.O. as part of Georgia, and Georgia exerted control over the breakaway Prov.
To me it seem like there is a strong concensus among S.O. residents where they want to live and be part of. If that many wish to rejoin Russia I say let them break-away and eat Borsch to their hearts content. Ironically, it will probably be the last vote of free-will they will have.
Not poking fun at you, of course, AL. It struck my funny bone, no lie.
Sort of a double standard operating here, eh?
If Bush backs up Georgia's play and we're exchanging missiles with Russia he's a madman (and catches flak, including from me, of course, had HE been that dumb).
If bush DOESN'T back up Georgia's weak-minded gambit, and all we do is marshall half the planet fussing at Russia and getting them to retreat back to their own turf, then he's a woose.
Pretty fierce set of gotcha double standards there.
Bush, Rice, the French President, and a LOT of fellow eastern European countries reacted properly to this (I personally toss Poland in there, too).
And several major NATO members (Germany, Italy, etc) crawfished, no surprise, but no glory there, either.
But I've filed "Dominant Paradigm" away for future use. Maybe it won't be quite in line with your original application, but its cool enough to do some work.
I understood your meaning, file away!
"Subvert the dominant paradigm!"
Al
__________________
“If it rolls, floats, flies or shoots, runs on gasoline or gunpowder, goes fast or shoots a big bullet and makes lots of noise, thus producing torque and recoil — it’s cool.” --Sterling Moss, Society of Torque and Recoil OhFour GT Drop top * Kenne Bell 9PSI I/C * Ford Racing 03 Cobra aluminum radiator * Full length welded subframe connectors * Couple of AutoMeter gauges, Grill delete kit * ZR3 Active laser countermeasures front and rear * Escort X50 blue radar detector *Clifford RSX3.5 Alarm
I believe it was Stalin that divided Ossetia and not the vote of the people. I just wanted to add that comment as background as I lead into my response to your comment above.
In the mid 1990 and in 2006 the voters in S. Ossetia held a vote for independence from Georgia. The first vote was not recognized and the second vote in 2006 had a turnout of over 90% and almost 100% of them voted for independence. That vote was overseen by international observers but it was not recognized. NATO, the UN and other international communities still recognize S.O. as part of Georgia, and Georgia exerted control over the breakaway Prov.
When you say "exerted control" would you agree that they did this by laying waste to a populated area of S.O.?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ONEZ ST
To me it seem like there is a strong concensus among S.O. residents where they want to live and be part of. If that many wish to rejoin Russia I say let them break-away and eat Borsch to their hearts content. Ironically, it will probably be the last vote of free-will they will have.
I'd have to agree with that. There is no way they can remain independent with Georgia on one side and Russia on the other.
__________________
“If it rolls, floats, flies or shoots, runs on gasoline or gunpowder, goes fast or shoots a big bullet and makes lots of noise, thus producing torque and recoil — it’s cool.” --Sterling Moss, Society of Torque and Recoil OhFour GT Drop top * Kenne Bell 9PSI I/C * Ford Racing 03 Cobra aluminum radiator * Full length welded subframe connectors * Couple of AutoMeter gauges, Grill delete kit * ZR3 Active laser countermeasures front and rear * Escort X50 blue radar detector *Clifford RSX3.5 Alarm
"Subvert" could have some major inuendo angles, too.
Remember when we were seeking new names for various levels on AFM achieved by numbers of posts?
"Top Dog" is one thing, but there are several who could fill the bill of "Dominant Paridigm".
Almost a scifi phrase. Coolage.
I like this use:
"Paradigm paralysis": The inability to see beyond the current models of thinking.
Ahhh, wikpedia.
__________________
“If it rolls, floats, flies or shoots, runs on gasoline or gunpowder, goes fast or shoots a big bullet and makes lots of noise, thus producing torque and recoil — it’s cool.” --Sterling Moss, Society of Torque and Recoil OhFour GT Drop top * Kenne Bell 9PSI I/C * Ford Racing 03 Cobra aluminum radiator * Full length welded subframe connectors * Couple of AutoMeter gauges, Grill delete kit * ZR3 Active laser countermeasures front and rear * Escort X50 blue radar detector *Clifford RSX3.5 Alarm
