Iran's Nuke Program Legit?

302Feen · 10-01-2009

Hey guys, I rarely ever spend any time in this section of the forum but I had a couple of questions I've just been a little curious about...

I was thinking, is it possible that Iran's nuclear facilities are completely legit?

Yes, I know Mr. Ahmadinejad (had to copy and paste that name

), seems to be pretty wacked out.

But nuclear energy is legit, and do we have any proof that they are making nukes?

I mean, does anyone remember how the Iraq war REALLY started??? Bush accused Saddam of having WMD's and what did we come to find out? That those accusations were false...
Not saying that is what's happening now, but is it possible?

What happens if we do it again.

Fool us once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on us.

Keving · 10-01-2009

Let me ask you this.

If it is legit why will they not allow anyone to inspect them?

If it is legit why does every nuclear expert say that the pictures from satellite photos say that the facilities do not in anyway look like they are designed for peaceful use?

I guess also that nobody remembers that there are people that confess to taking "WMD's" out of Iraq to Syria. There are also people that have confessed that Iraq was planning to use those weapons on an attack on Israel which I am sure that Syria and Iran would have been in on it.

That crazy guy in Iran wakes up every morning with a mission to figure out a way to attack Israel, and a way to fund, or plan terrorist attacks on the U. S.

Remember that peace is kept by strength. Not by diplomacy. The reason we are not attacked is because we by far have the strongest military in the world.

Don't for one second think that because he says that he is not working on nukes that he actually isn't.

2oo5GT · 10-01-2009

When it's hidden underground and we have to secretly find it or when they don't want NATO to come check it out to make sure it's legit.....yeah, their not legit. Not even 2 legit or 2 legit to quit. (sorry, saw HotRod yesterday)
But seriously, they are pissing off alot of countries.

**tripleblack** · 10-01-2009

Anyone really interested in this topic can read through all the posts and links in this thread: http://www.allfordmustangs.com/forum...es-threat.html

My opinion is obvious - Iran is not to be trusted.

302Feen · 10-01-2009

Good points.
As some of you know, I really don't pay much attention to the news. So I'm not current with all the stuff going on really.
I just know that we've made the mistake before. So I was just sayin'.

A lot of middle easterners have a completely different way of thinking than us. And we all know the hatred towards Israel. And Iran is pretty damn close to Israel so I can understand the concern.

But I really think we need to get more hard evidence this time before we go in there guns'a'blazin.

martial mustang · 10-01-2009

If we don't do something about it, Israel will. They can't afford not to. One nuclear weapon going of them will wipe them off the map, and Ahmadinejad is crazy enough to use one. Not saying we need to declare war or anything, but something has to be done before the situation escalates.

BlueStreak03 · 10-02-2009

I'm starting to wonder about the viability of Iran's program. We thought Hussein had WMD and largely we thought that because of the propaganda that he was encouraging. I'm wondering if Iran is doing the same. Not that I think we should sit back and be passive, but maybe it's something that should be considered.

JEB · 10-02-2009

I would rather shoot first and then look for verification.

I'm much happier with that outcome if we are wrong about their capabilities.

And hey, Look at how GREAT Obamessiah is at apologizing for America!!

**tripleblack** · 10-02-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueStreak03

I'm starting to wonder about the viability of Iran's program. We thought Hussein had WMD and largely we thought that because of the propaganda that he was encouraging. I'm wondering if Iran is doing the same. Not that I think we should sit back and be passive, but maybe it's something that should be considered.

I think this was what was behind the lack of action during the Bush years - they did not want to repeat the error, and had intelligence that went AGAINST the grain (whereas the whole planet was reading Sadaam's bogus internal mail, and had intelligence that went WITH the grain, ie, indicating something not present).

Also, as any LEO will tell us, there is the circumstantial evidence and the behavior pattern which tells the story of guilt. Even very wealthy nation states like Iran do not spend $50billion burying peaceful nuclear energy projects under 30 feet of soil and 14 feet of armored ferro-concrete because they want to "project" behavior they are not actually engaging in. Needless to say, Sadaam did none of this, mainly because he lacked the resources to do ANY of it. His actual efforts were focused on the bathtub version, the creation of chemical weapons for the most part, with a lesser priority given to biological concoctions. Note that these do not even enter into the Iranian equation, primarily because they ARE so difficult to spot, track and detect, much less "prove".

Finally, unlike Iraq, no one is trying to prove that Iran actually HAS any WMDs (whether they do or not), only that they are seeking to create nukes.

Sadaam was 15 years behind where the Iranians are now (perhaps 20) when we helped the Israelis bomb his nuclear program, btw. If Israel COULD take out the Iranian program, they would have already done so.

As I pointed out in the other thread (at length) the Israelis lack the technology to reach Iran without our assistance - and also lack the necessary munitions to destroy the nuclear bunkers even if they did make it there with their warplanes (which would require multiple US and allied military commands to do a wink-wink, nod-nod, all along the way). Israel's attempt to stage from the friendly soil of Georgia was uncovered by one of Iran's sponsors (Russia) when they recently over-ran that country, and that approach is now gone.

I suspect Israel is working hard on developing their own bunker-busters, and working out an alternative path to pre-stage their strike, but it still seems that they face a daunting set of barriers.

Iran has played the game FAR smarter than that clown, Sadaam. It will be the template for such affairs in the future, I see us coping with a nascent nuclear Chavez in our own backyard, for instance...

But whether or not Iran already has nukes - or is "truly" planning on making them - is just not the real issue.

The only question is HOW Israel will get around all the roadblocks erected by Iran's friends (which in a bizarre turn of fate, now includes us) - or more worrying, IF they will do so.

martial mustang · 10-02-2009

Man, where's Reagan when you need him. Iran would stop in a heartbeat if he were president.

BlueStreak03 · 10-03-2009

I don't think that Israel is quite as hampered as they would have the world believe. Moussad is a VERY effective counterintelligence and espionage agency. They and the IDF can and will find a way to deal with this when the time comes, with or without bunker busters. Afterall, the best way to destroy something is from the inside.

**tripleblack** · 10-03-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueStreak03

I don't think that Israel is quite as hampered as they would have the world believe. Moussad is a VERY effective counterintelligence and espionage agency. They and the IDF can and will find a way to deal with this when the time comes, with or without bunker busters. Afterall, the best way to destroy something is from the inside.

I think that Moussad is very effective, and that if Israel CAN use that method to destroy the nuke factories, they will.

I am also aware that sometimes human intelligence capabilities do not include the ability to transport tons of ordinance past layers of security.

If Israel had that capability back in the day with Iraq, they never used it, and also did not take that path when dealing with the new plant the Syrians were building. In both cases, the method used was air assault.

I expect that, just as Iran has been able to replicate the R&D to build nukes, Israel is far along the far-simpler path to building their own bunker busters...

It just takes time, and a sneaky plan to get through the overlapping radar corridors dominated by us.

We'll see what ultimately happens.

As an aside, one HAS to wonder about the smarts of the various terrorist groups cheering on the Iranians, like Hamas and Hezbollah and the PLO (etc) who all live right next to Israel, and who are inside the fallot zone (if not the actual blast zone) in the event that Iran ever really DOES attack Israel...

I guess all those cartoons are correct. These guys really ARE dumb as dirt.

**tripleblack** · 10-03-2009

DEBKAfile - Israel receives at least one new German Dolphin-class submarine

Interesting tidbit. This is the sort of thing to look for given the odd situation Israrel is coping with.

Note that Egypt may help them by allowing passage of Israeli naval vessels through the Suez Canal.

Iran has fewer friends than many people in Washington believe...

BlueStreak03 · 10-03-2009

Even if Egypt doesn't allow that safe passage for that sub through the Suez, which I doubt any submarine would hazzard, the Persian Gulf is not impossible to get to by other routes.

**tripleblack** · 10-03-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueStreak03

Even if Egypt doesn't allow that safe passage for that sub through the Suez, which I doubt any submarine would hazzard, the Persian Gulf is not impossible to get to by other routes.

If you read the report I linked to, they already have one Dolphin passing through the Suez. They do it on the surface, of course.

This puts them into the Indian Ocean, right outside the Strait of Hormuz, where their cruise missiles would have the range to hit north of Tehran.

This would require them to have developed a bunker buster cruise missile, though, something we have never invented (probably because we never needed that specific class of weapon).

Israel may end up selling bunker busters to us, instead of the other way around. Ironic.