Back before the Stimulus Bill (aka Porkzilla I) was fully crafted, President Obama insisted that it had to be IMMEDIATELY passed else we stood a real chance of seeing unemployment as high as 8%!
Needless to say, it was passed, immediately, before anyone had even read it...
Now, a few months later, we see that 8% unemployment has come and gone, as has 9% unemployment, and now we are looking at 10% unemployment...
So where does it end?
The answer is that it doesn't, not anytime soon.
This article has some very interesting information and charts about this topic, and notice in particular the simple chart at the end, where a little imagination can project the trend (even following the downslope of the fantasy plan from the Obama administration, though at the elevated "real" levels of the red dots) to 2010, where even with a recovery factored in, we see 10% unemployment - or 2012, where it is likely to finally match his scary prediction for 2009 of 8%.
What is it the foaming at the mouth librotards say?
"Boooooooosh!!!!!"
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Man if the real 'un/underemployed' numbers were published as broadly as this joke of a statistic, we'd have a revolt on our hands.
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Man if the real 'un/underemployed' numbers were published as broadly as this joke of a statistic, we'd have a revolt on our hands.
Yes, "U3" (which includes under-employed and the recent "quit looking" class) is over 17%, and since all these numbers are under-reported and "lagging indicators", odds are the real number is over 20%...
The other thing that has become clear is that as the government has stretched and stretched and stretched the period of time that unemployment benefits are paid, an odd thing has happened...
Folks are taking longer and longer and longer to find a new job.
Who woulda thunk it?
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Folks are taking longer and longer and longer to find a new job.
Who woulda thunk it?
OK, normally I would agree that there is probably a cause and effect relationship to that, but in this case I think the economic slowdown is a big factor in the amount of time it takes people to find jobs. I personally know some very smart, energetic people who have been trying to find jobs for many months without success. The jobs just aren't out there yet.
On another point, it is clear that Obama administration seriously underestimated the effect that the stimulus bill would have on unemployment, but I do agree with them that things would probably have been a lot worse without it.
I have studied economics, and one truism that no politician wants to admit is that the ability of government to manage the economy is limited. Anything the government can do takes a long time to have an effect, and there can be unintended consequences. Imagine trying to steer an ocean liner through a sea of jello - that's a good analogy. So it doesn't surprise me at all that unemployment rates are still high and still climbing. Anyone who thought that the stimulus would start to bring those rates down in anything less than 18 months to two years was simply uninformed or kidding themselves. But of course you can't admit any of this stuff to the American public. They want results and they want them NOW!
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Obviously. But if you look over the linked article, its clear that this is not a sudden event - but a long term trend that tracks with the steady extension of benefits over the past few decades. It also indicates that there are millions of baby boomers who are getting prematurely retired against their wills, and others who are "removing themselves from the labor market" from discouragement that predates the current recession.
Don't get me wrong, I am dead CERTAIN that your observation that the current recession is affecting the number of persons becoming unemployed, and the length of time it takes to find replacement employment. I am also certain that human nature will find many willing to ride the system to the end of the line, however long or short that line might be. Its just that this particular article and its illustrative charts show these and the other factors quite clearly, supporting the logical guesses (and of course, they are only guesses, the statistics are too diffuse and questionable in general terms to be more than that - don't get me started on how interpretations of what "employed" means enters the underlying assumptions!)
We have to keep in mind that in many cases unemployment benefits are extending beyond 18 months - which would mean that even the latest figures are looking at folks who first applied for benefits in 2007, when the economy was roaring along and we enjoyed what the politicians then were calling "full employment" (ie, 5% unemployment).
The malfeasance that is the current "modified" unemployment numbers are, for one thing, NOT really "unemployment" numbers, but on the contrary, they are "unemployment BENEFIT" numbers, ie, the portion of the unemployed actually currently filing for and receiving government benefits.
Those who choose to NOT file for benefits are of course not represented (this is a surprisingly high number, it somehow warms my heart when I read that there are still many Americans who pride themselves on self-reliance and who will simply NOT hit the dole), as are large numbers of people losing good jobs and replacing them with low level, part time, service jobs (they are NOT on the unemployment dole, but they are certainly NOT working 40 hours, or earning more than a tiny fraction of their prior job).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is aware of these (and other) problems, so they issue a number of further defined numbers with estimates of this or that. Its strange, however, that the media now fastens on the lowest (and least informative) number.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mpov
OK, normally I would agree that there is probably a cause and effect relationship to that, but in this case I think the economic slowdown is a big factor in the amount of time it takes people to find jobs. I personally know some very smart, energetic people who have been trying to find jobs for many months without success. The jobs just aren't out there yet.
On another point, it is clear that Obama administration seriously underestimated the effect that the stimulus bill would have on unemployment, but I do agree with them that things would probably have been a lot worse without it.
I have studied economics, and one truism that no politician wants to admit is that the ability of government to manage the economy is limited. Anything the government can do takes a long time to have and effect, and there can be unintended consequences. Imagine trying to steer an ocean liner through a sea of jello - that's a good analogy. So it doesn't surprise me at all that unemployment rates are still high and still climbing. Anyone who thought that the stimulus would start to bring those rates down in anything less than 18 months to two years was simply uninformed or kidding themselves. But of course you can't admit any of this stuff to the American public. They want results and they want them NOW!
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Mpov, I believe you meant to say that the "Obama administration seriously OVERestimated the effect that the stimulus bill would have on unemployment". I don't believe for a minute that the bill has increased unemployment - but its apparent that it has been grossly unsuccessful at DECREASING unemployment.
This was false advertising at the very least, and I laugh whenever I see old clips of earnest politicians talking about "shovel ready projects". Obama stampeded the bill through with the dire warning at the time that failure to quickly get the money out creating jobs would result in "8% unemployment". This was another gross mis-calculation, of course.
A majority of the stimulus money was scheduled to be spent in late 2010 thru 2012 - a period of time which no one knew about until long after the bill was steamrolled to a vote.
So Mpov, you are absolutely correct, that "Stimulus" money was never intended to provide jobs during the recession.
This was something which I THOUGHT at the time was the likely truth - though with the microwave popcorn pace with which it was prepared, larded with an astounding mountain of pork, and piled onto our collective debt, this was nothing more than a wild guess at the time.
I can say with all sincerity that it gives me no satisfaction at all that my cynical estimate made at the time of its potential effects was spot on.
There WERE other ideas of how to spend stimulus money and address the problems - on the spot and to the point. Setting aside some time period during which all workers and retirees would receive their entire paychecks (with no Federal withholding of any kind) - a 3 or 6 month tax holiday - would have placed the Stimulus directly into the hands of the American people, instantly, and in a very fast and efficient manner costing virtually nothing in terms of program overhead.
Unfortunately this and other more sane options were dismissed, and we are where we are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mpov
On another point, it is clear that Obama administration seriously underestimated the effect that the stimulus bill would have on unemployment, but I do agree with them that things would probably have been a lot worse without it.
I have studied economics, and one truism that no politician wants to admit is that the ability of government to manage the economy is limited. Anything the government can do takes a long time to have and effect, and there can be unintended consequences. Imagine trying to steer an ocean liner through a sea of jello - that's a good analogy. So it doesn't surprise me at all that unemployment rates are still high and still climbing. Anyone who thought that the stimulus would start to bring those rates down in anything less than 18 months to two years was simply uninformed or kidding themselves. But of course you can't admit any of this stuff to the American public. They want results and they want them NOW!
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Mpov, I believe you meant to say that the "Obama administration seriously OVERestimated the effect that the stimulus bill would have on unemployment".
You are quite right. I stand corrected.
As far as the intent of the politicians involved, well as I said before they were either uninformed or fooling themselves (not an uncommon occurrence in Washington). And of course, once the floodgates of were opened, what politician could resist making sure large bits of that spending (bacon bits, so to speak) were directed to their districts and pet projects?
Still, I think things would have been worse today without the bill - if you throw that kind of money into the system it has to have some positive short term effect, regardless of where it goes. Unforunately we will be paying for it for a long, long time.
As far as the tax holiday idea, we did try something like that a couple of years ago, giving out tax rebates. And what did people do with that money? Horror of horrors - they saved it! Wow. If we can't trust the people to go out on a spending binge then SOMEONE's got to do it, right?
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LOL, yes, We are in agreement on that. "Bacon bits", I will have to remember that in the future, good one there, don't be surprised if you see it pop up in my posts, but I will always give you credit...
And I also will NOT argue that the economy would be "better" without the Stimulus Bill (right now - long term, that opinion changes dramatically, given that this money will have to be repaid, with interest). It has done a few things that are showing promise, but certainly NOT nothing.
BUT I will argue that we had other things which could have been done (such as those I listed elsewhere) that would have been FAR more effective.
I really wish that Porkzilla I COULD be viewed as an event at some extreme - either entirely without good intent or supremely competent and successful. On a scale of 1 to 10, I give it a 2.5.
When the program was being put together, a LOT of naive notions were being expressed via its voluminous contents, not least of which were a long laundry list of patronage and bacon bits used to purchase the votes of politicians and to payoff political debts.
I am aware that these activities are "commonplace", but I will NEVER cease to point them out and denounce them.
Since you and I have not exchanged many posts, I'll just let you know that I am a Libertarian, NOT a Republican, and therefore I have a history of being highly critical of the Republicans as well.
I am results and issues oriented in these matters.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mpov
You are quite right. I stand corrected.
As far as the intent of the politicians involved, well as I said before they were either uninformed or fooling themselves (not an uncommon occurrence in Washington). And of course, once the floodgates of were opened, what politician could resist making sure large bits of that spending (bacon bits, so to speak) were directed to their districts and pet projects?
Still, I think things would have been worse today without the bill - if you throw that kind of money into the system it has to have some positive short term effect, regardless of where it goes. Unforunately we will be paying for it for a long, long time.
As far as the tax holiday idea, we did try something like that a couple of years ago, giving out tax rebates. And what did people do with that money? Horror of horrors - they saved it! Wow. If we can't trust the people to go out on a spending binge then SOMEONE's got to do it, right?
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
President Obama and Unemployment 
