Man, the UAW has killed the American car manufacturing industry. I hope they choke on the vomit of their own idiocy.
Sorry, that's just the evil capitalist in me speaking..
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I Hate GM, deal with it.
One shot, One Kill! Don't waste ammo, it's pricey!
2005 GT Screaming Yellow: SLP Loudmouths
Ibanez guitars, S&W revolvers, Glock Semi's
Republican write in Presidential Candidate 2012
Saw a rumor that the Fiesta production is considered to follow the Kuga to the USA too...
Now that you have mentioned it...
Yes, that is true. Ford had already decided to set up a factory here, long before the recession, but the high Euro is driving another decision as well. I would think they will plan a slightly larger factory, and run it extra shifts, though they may also pull the trigger on a second factory, probably in Mexico (or just in Mexico, a lot depends on the nonsense going down with the UAW, which I believe is something of a surprise to Ford).
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Almost a billion dollars in net revenue last quarter. Way to go, Ford! I must say the reputation of Ford's products seems to be climbing lately. Consumer Reports is putting them on par with Toyota and Honda. Have to give props to Mullaly and his management team for steering Ford away from government bailout money, improving quality, and putting out compelling products. My family owns 2 Fords - a Taurus X and a Mustang. We really like both cars a lot and my wife, who likes researching cars, is already talking about a Fusion Hybrid.
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2008 Vapor GT Premium Convertible
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Almost a billion dollars in net revenue last quarter. Way to go, Ford! I must say the reputation of Ford's products seems to be climbing lately. Consumer Reports is putting them on par with Toyota and Honda. Have to give props to Mullaly and his management team for steering Ford away from government bailout money, improving quality, and putting out compelling products. My family owns 2 Fords - a Taurus X and a Mustang. We really like both cars a lot and my wife, who likes researching cars, is already talking about a Fusion Hybrid.
If you are a multi-car family, and are considering a Hybrid for in-town use, you might hold off until Ford issues their new electric car, which might be more efficient - all depending on the intended use, of course.
The Hybrid will have a higher operating cost, but will of course be able to travel anywhere, long trips, etc.
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
If you are a multi-car family, and are considering a Hybrid for in-town use, you might hold off until Ford issues their new electric car, which might be more efficient - all depending on the intended use, of course.
The Hybrid will have a higher operating cost, but will of course be able to travel anywhere, long trips, etc.
"Talking" was the operative word there. I don't think we'll be buying a new car any time soon. What I think I acutally need is some cheap POS that I can drive to the train station every day, especially in inclement weather. Have not driven the Mustang in the snow yet.
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2008 Vapor GT Premium Convertible
5 spd, IUP, 18" wheels, 14" shorty antenna, some interior dress up mods. Still contemplating CAI, tune, mufflers.
"Talking" was the operative word there. I don't think we'll be buying a new car any time soon. What I think I acutally need is some cheap POS that I can drive to the train station every day, especially in inclement weather. Have not driven the Mustang in the snow yet.
Definitely. Mustangs (even those with the Traction Control option) are poor drivers in ice and snow. Not impossible, mind you, just not the equal of front wheel drives or vehicles with more ground clearance, awd, etc.
The strategy of a winter driver makes perfect sense. Look for something used but serviceable, and already fitted with winter tires.
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor (one of the few stock pundit rags worth listening to) just recommended Ford as a buy. They are optimistic about the firm's product set and ability to continue picking up market share. They have confidence in the firm's ability to reduce its debt, though they point out the debt, and ongoing union negotiations, pose risks. Still, they think the stock is currently undervalued. They don't predict a price target (they never do).
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2008 Vapor GT Premium Convertible
5 spd, IUP, 18" wheels, 14" shorty antenna, some interior dress up mods. Still contemplating CAI, tune, mufflers.
Here is my last post on this topic, dated 8-3-09. Note that I predicted the Dow would hit 10,000 within 6 months (it did) and that we might see 11,000 in 2010 (we might).
I had thought that Ford's stock would pace the DOW, and in general terms it has.
Now I am seeing a correction coming (probably between now and late February), so I would recommend you check your investments closely. I am departing the market, and will be buying back in at a lower level during the correction. I will try to remember to mention when this happens here, for those who are still reading this marathon thread.
MPOV, if you want to read back over the thread, you will see several places where we discussed Ford's stock as an investment.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Quote:
Originally Posted by tripleblack
Yes. Those of you who pestered me for years about NOT investing, and then ignored me when I said "Buy", well...
You can lead a horse to water...
As for how long this upward momentum will last, a lot has to do with the overall economy.
I HAD been looking for the economy and the markets to regain something like their prior valuations over the next 2 years...
But I have been steadily ratcheting downward that estimate in terms of value, and lengthening the amount of time it will take.
Ford will now start reacting to the overall economy - or for a shorthand measure, just watch one of the large market indexes. Since Ford is part of the DOW, watch THAT number.
I look for the DOW to recover to the 10,000 support level over the next 6 months, and it MIGHT hit 11,000 next year...
At which point I see a nasty correction coming down the pike.
This is just a really rough, gross estimate. With this thinking, seeing as how the DOW is currently in the low 9000 range, look for another 10-20% of upside. This applies to Ford too.
As I have been saying for years, though, the markets are no longer driven by market forces and capitalism - but are now far more controlled by politics and emotion.
Good news for Ford for now. Lord knows they needed it.
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
Totally anecdotal, but my personal experience is that the actual quality is rising also.
__________________
I Hate GM, deal with it.
One shot, One Kill! Don't waste ammo, it's pricey!
2005 GT Screaming Yellow: SLP Loudmouths
Ibanez guitars, S&W revolvers, Glock Semi's
Republican write in Presidential Candidate 2012
Now I am seeing a correction coming (probably between now and late February), so I would recommend you check your investments closely. I am departing the market, and will be buying back in at a lower level during the correction. I will try to remember to mention when this happens here, for those who are still reading this marathon thread.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
More power to you, but IMHO trying to time the market is a fool's game. One may get lucky every so often but in the long run the best course of action is to find good, preferably undervalued, companies to invest in and dollar cost average into the investments.
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2008 Vapor GT Premium Convertible
5 spd, IUP, 18" wheels, 14" shorty antenna, some interior dress up mods. Still contemplating CAI, tune, mufflers.
More power to you, but IMHO trying to time the market is a fool's game. One may get lucky every so often but in the long run the best course of action is to find good, preferably undervalued, companies to invest in and dollar cost average into the investments.
Buy and hold has its own risks, of course.
As for timing the market, the more macro the estimate, and the more wild the political/geopolitical scene, and the more intent the government is to meddle, the easier it is to predict broad movements. In a free and open market, bereft of these ideological agendas, I agree, timing is very difficult. This held true in my experience from 1998 back to when I first started making investments in 1976. I was a buy and hold investor then, though I have never interpreted that to mean "buy and ignore". I would "hold" until I found something better to buy - or when the original pick soured after a while. Buy and hold can auger into the ground when what seemed like great investments earlier turn into the GM, Enron and WorldCom zeroes later.
I am not picking on Ford stock right now to Sell, oh no, it is on my personal short list to buy - again - just at a lower price.
A hint for those curious as to what I see as a trigger for the next down market over the next 3-4 months:
Look for excruciatingly expensive legislation which also has the effect of killing good jobs in droves.
Look for tax increases, almost any of which will kill jobs and delay economic recovery.
Look for new government rules, regulations and general impediments to businesses making profits or hiring.
Look at the geopolitical situation, any wars ongoing, any wars in the offing, and what effect they might have on the world economy, oil, strategic minerals, important trade relationships, or currency fluctuations.
Review what happend the LAST time such a confluence of events occurred, what did the markets do, go up or down?
LOL, all I can do is what I do personally, for me. Several members over the years have asked that I mention my opinions, primarily in this thread. Maybe they no longer follow, who knows?
If I'm wrong, I will have sat on the sidelines and earned about 1% on my investments instead of the 3 or 4% more active investors who stayed fully invested will earn. That represents the upside risk.
The downside risk, imho, is much stronger right now, more like 20-30%. Just my opinion, of course.
Had you read back over the thread, you would see where the first time members were talking about buying Ford stock in this thread was the last time it was anywhere near where it is now. That was a long time ago, and a hairy ride involving a lot of scary time flirting with penny stock status. Those that ignored my advice back then, counting (for one instance) on a government bailout to make them a profit (GM did not work out that way for its shareholders, of course) would now be about where they were after the roller coaster ride, though without any earnings to speak of (back then, Ford had a good dividend yield).
LOL, needless to say I am not telling anyone what to do, I lack that power and would not want it if it were available.
To be specific, I am pulling back from the market, though I still have a list of stocks working, which I plan to sell off between now and 12-20, leaving me with just a few oil, metal and mine investments plus cash at that point.
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tripleblack
"You can never be free until you let yourself go."
As for timing the market, the more macro the estimate, and the more wild the political/geopolitical scene, and the more intent the government is to meddle, the easier it is to predict broad movements. In a free and open market, bereft of these ideological agendas, I agree, timing is very difficult. This held true in my experience from 1998 back to when I first started making investments in 1976. I was a buy and hold investor then, though I have never interpreted that to mean "buy and ignore". I would "hold" until I found something better to buy - or when the original pick soured after a while. Buy and hold can auger into the ground when what seemed like great investments earlier turn into the GM, Enron and WorldCom zeroes later.
If I'm wrong, I will have sat on the sidelines and earned about 1% on my investments instead of the 3 or 4% more active investors who stayed fully invested will earn. That represents the upside risk.
. . .
The downside risk, imho, is much stronger right now, more like 20-30%. Just my opinion, of course.
I wasn't suggesting holding any company forever. There are many good reasons to sell and one should have in mind an exit strategy whenever one buys a stock - one needs to think about the conditions that would trigger a decision to sell. I was just saying that trying to time the market is generally not a good strategy.
I also think you may be miscalculating your risk. You need to factor into the equation the fact that, when you sell, you have to pay capital gains taxes on the profits, so you are losing a good chunk of money right off the bat. Your 1% return is on a lower amount than you would have had if you did not sell.
__________________
2008 Vapor GT Premium Convertible
5 spd, IUP, 18" wheels, 14" shorty antenna, some interior dress up mods. Still contemplating CAI, tune, mufflers.
I don't think we'll be buying a new car any time soon. What I think I acutally need is some cheap POS that I can drive to the train station every day, especially in inclement weather. Have not driven the Mustang in the snow yet.
