My recommendation is neither tune/cai or catback. You said it yourself that you are still learning manual and getting used to the power plus you are headed towards winter's inclement weather and poor driving conditions. Get a set of Weathertech or Husky floor liners to protect your carpet and maybe a set of drilled aluminum pedals to give your snow/slush covered shoes better grip. Come Spring, you should be used to the car and I think you'll appreciate the extra power you'll gain from mods that much more.
I think when you do start modding, you should do the tuner and cai first. Then, decide if you want the exhaust. You may find the extra noise from the cai satisfies you enough not to do the exhaust. Power gains are minimal and I am really questioning whether I could hear the exhaust over the induction noise from the cai. I am planning to do shorty headers which is supposed to deepen the exhaust note and you get good low/mid range power gains.
My 2 cents
2013 V6 Base Coupe - Performance and Tech Packages - Ingot Silver
Bama Tuned with Airaid CAI - GT front brake upgrade - More to come.